Daily model refining margin

Range: Archive
20.05.2018 - 16.05.2019
Refining margin (USD/bbl) 16.05.2019: 4.66

Daily figure is based on last five days rolling average.

Model refining margin reflects the refinery’s profitability based on prices from the NWE market, published by Thomson Reuters, taking into account the aggregation of product groups into publicly available price indices, on which the majority of the Company’s sales are based.

Model margin is calculated for a yield structure estimated in the averaged scenario (excluding annual seasonality) of the refinery’s typical operation.

Assumptions: throughput equivalent to 95% capacity utilisation; 100% feedstock is Urals crude, whose value is determined as the sum of Dtd Brent price and the Urals vs Brent spread.

The margin calculation is built around the presented yield structure, with the following price indices assigned:

  • 14.14% gasoline (PRM UNL 10 ppm ARA);
  • 4.24% naphtha (Naphtha CIF NWE);
  • 4.53% LPG (50% Propane FOB NWE, 50% Butane FOB NWE);
  • 49.57% diesel oil (ULSD 10 ppm CIF NWE);
  • 5.34% jet fuel (Jet CIF NWE);
  • 18.11% heavy fuel oil (HFO 3.5%S ARA);
  • 4.07% refinery’s own consumption.

In the calculation, the margin is reduced by the estimated model cost of natural gas used per model barrel of crude processed, calculated as the product of 0.075 and the gas index quoted on the Day-Ahead Market of the Polish Power Exchange (TGEgasDA index), converted into USD/MWh (based on YTD 2016 data).

Considering that the model does not account for differences in selling prices on different geographical sale markets, the presented margin amount is an estimate rather than the actual refining margin generated by Grupa LOTOS S.A.’s refinery.