LOTOS

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Model refining margin for 2017 (USD/bbl) 

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
7.03  7.68  7.36  8.03                


Quarterly model refining margin (USD/bbl)

3Q 2014 2Q 2014  1Q 2014 4Q 2014  1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015   4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2017
5.05 4.97  6.97 7.32 9.38  8.08  7.41 6.21  6.51 6.49 6.01 8.24 7.34


Model refining margin for 2016 (USD/bbl) 

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
7.25  6.12  6.17  6.07  6.23  7.09  5.27  5.55  7.31  8.86  8,59  7.15


Model refining margin for 2015 (USD/bbl)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
8.77 8.99  10.32  7.87  7.49  8.73  6.79  8.51  7.08  5.85  8.60  4.45


Model refining margin for 2014 (USD/bbl)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5.25 5.52  4.29  6.40  4.09  4.44  6.14  6.87  7.86  6.87  8.29  6.83

 
Model refining margin for 2013 (USD/bbl)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5.82 8.30 7.95 7.33 4.97 5.70 4.48 3.91 4.54 5.55 5.24 5.68

 

The model refining margin reflects the refinery’s profitability based on NWE market prices published by Thomson Reuters, taking into account product group aggregation to generally available price indices, which are the basis for most of the Company’s sales.


The model refining margin is calculated for a yield structure estimated in the averaged scenario (excluding the annual seasonality) of typical annual operation of Grupa LOTOS’ refinery.

Annual throughput has been assumed to correspond to the distillation capacity utilisation of 95% if Urals crude was the only feedstock, whose value is determined as the sum of Dtd Brent price and the Urals vs. Brent spread.

The margin calculation is built around the below listed  yield structure, with the following price indices assigned:

  • 14.14% gasoline (PRM UNL 10 ppm ARA) 
  • 4.24% naphtha (Naphtha CIF NWE) 
  • 4.53% LPG (50% Propane FOB NWE, 50% Butane FOB NWE)  
  • 49.57% diesel oil (ULSD 10 ppm CIF NWE) 
  • 5.34% jet fuel (Jet CIF NWE) 
  • 18.11% heavy fuel oil (HFO 3,5%S ARA )
  • 4.07% refinery’s own consumption.

In the calculation, the margin is reduced by the estimated model cost of natural gas used per barrel of crude oil processed - calculated as the product of 0.075 and the gas index quoted on the Day-Ahead Market of the Polish Power Exchange (TGEgasDA index), converted into USD per 1 MWh (applied from 1 January 2016).  

The presented model does not allow for differences in prices following from sales on different geographical markets, the presented model refining margin is an approximate only, which is not identical with the actual refining margin of the Gdańsk refinery of Grupa LOTOS S.A.